Australia: a €25 pack of cigarettes, and tobacco revenue down by three quarters

In Australia, tobacco duty has stood at A$1.55274 per cigarette since 1 September 2026, or A$31.05 per pack of 20, about €19.37 at the ECB rate of 13 October 2026. Even before the 10% goods and services tax, that is almost the price of the best-selling pack in Ireland (€20.15), the most expensive of the 18 countries we track.

Yet the government is collecting less and less: tobacco duty raised A$14.26 billion in 2020-21, and the budget of 12 May 2026 expects only A$3.56 billion in 2026-27. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 80% of the nicotine consumed in 2025 came from illegal sources.

A legal pack at around €25

Since July 2025, every pack sold in Australia contains 20 cigarettes. In September 2025, according to Cancer Council Victoria, the most smoked one, JPS 20, cost A$42.99, or €26.81. The average was A$39.69 (€24.76) for the cheapest brands and A$60.72 (€37.87) for premium brands, before the indexations of March and September 2026.

Duty per cigarette is indexed twice a year to average earnings: +1.6% on 1 September 2026. Roll-your-own tobacco is now taxed as if each cigarette contained 0.6 grams, or A$2,587.90 per kilo. According to the ABS, legal tobacco prices have almost tripled since December 2016. Our comparison of tobacco tax models sets this choice against Europe's.

Tax revenue divided by four

• 2020-21: A$14.26 billion collected
• 2024-25: A$7.77 billion collected
• 2025-26: A$4.13 billion estimated
• 2026-27: A$3.56 billion forecast
• 2029-30: A$2.14 billion forecast

In March 2022, the budget still expected A$13.55 billion for 2025-26: the current estimate is less than a third of that. The May 2026 budget cut another A$1.24 billion (25.8%) from the December 2025 forecast for 2026-27, and gave the reason:

"The downgrade reflects continued weakness in tobacco excise collections and a weaker outlook for excisable tobacco volumes." Australian Government, Budget Paper No. 1, May 2026

The black market: 55% or 80% depending on the method

According to the 2024-25 report of the federal Illicit Tobacco and E-cigarette Commissioner, published in late 2025, the illegal market made up 55% of the tobacco market (50% to 60% depending on assumptions), worth A$5.6 billion. It puts evaded excise at A$7.7 to 11.8 billion, against A$7.7 billion paid on legal tobacco, assuming every illegal cigarette would otherwise have been bought legally.

On 3 June 2026, the ABS published an experimental estimate based on wastewater from 60 treatment plants, cross-checked with supermarket sales and tax data. Illegal sources would have grown from 12% of the nicotine consumed in 2017 to 80% in 2025, illegal vapes included. Nicotine consumption rose by almost 40%, for a population up 14%, while legal tobacco volumes fell by more than two thirds.

Fewer smokers, but no less nicotine

Price policy did work: according to the ABS, the share of adults smoking daily fell from 22.4% in 2001 to 10.6% in 2022, the effect described in our analysis of price increases, reinforced by plain packaging from 2012. But since 2021, nicotine consumption has been rising again, mostly through the illegal market.

The government is keeping indexation and funding enforcement: the May 2026 budget gives A$14 million to the states to dismantle illicit networks. Cancer Council Australia, the national cancer charity, rejects any cut to excise.

"Urgent action is needed to address this, but cutting tobacco tax is not the solution." Jacinta Reddan, Cancer Council Australia, 5 June 2026

What Australia tells Europe

In Europe, the leak mostly runs across borders, and legally: a traveller can bring back 800 cigarettes from another EU country. In the Netherlands, 54% of smokers bought tobacco abroad in 2024, and the government is ruling out any increase in 2027. Australia, an island, has no such outlet: demand shifts to smuggling. Ireland, where the best-selling pack has just reached €20.15, is getting close to these price levels.

Travelling to Australia with cigarettes

According to the Australian Border Force (ABF), a traveller aged 18 or over may enter with one unopened packet of up to 25 cigarettes, or 25 grams of tobacco, plus one open packet, duty free. Above that, they must declare their tobacco and pay duty on all of it, not just the excess, or abandon the surplus. Failing to declare can lead to a fine, or even visa cancellation. Our customs guide covers the European rules.

In Australia, Quitline answers on 13 78 48 to help people stop smoking. In France, Tabac Info Service answers on 39 89. Our quit smoking guide lists the methods that work.

Sources

• Australian Government, 2026-27 Budget, Budget Paper No. 1, revenue, May 2026. budget.gov.au
• Australian Government, 2022-23 Budget, Budget Paper No. 1, revenue, March 2022. archive.budget.gov.au
• ABF, Customs Notice 2026/32, tobacco duty from 1 September 2026. abf.gov.au
• ABS, household consumption of illicit tobacco and nicotine products, 3 June 2026. abs.gov.au
• Illicit Tobacco and E-cigarette Commissioner, 2024-25 report. itec.gov.au
• Cancer Council Victoria, Tobacco in Australia, section 13.3, December 2025. tobaccoinaustralia.org.au
• ABS, Smoking and vaping, 2022. abs.gov.au
• Cancer Council Australia, media release of 5 June 2026. cancer.org.au
• ABF, traveller duty-free concessions. abf.gov.au
• ABF, Customs Notice 2025/08 on travellers' tobacco. abf.gov.au
• Healthdirect, Quitline. healthdirect.gov.au
• Prices in the 18 countries we track: our ranking